Express Entry Draws in 2026: What Toronto Candidates Need to Do Differently for the Rest of the Year
By Anne Lui, founder and principal consultant of Hopeway Immigration
If you’ve had an Express Entry profile sitting in the pool since January, you’ve probably noticed something: the second half of this game is not playing out like the first half did. We work with Express Entry candidates across the Greater Toronto Area every week, and the question we’re getting most right now isn’t “when’s the next draw” — it’s “why does my score suddenly not feel like enough.”
Here’s the honest answer, backed by the actual 2026 draw data, and what we think you should do about it before the year is out.
The 2026 numbers, at a glance
Before we get into strategy, here’s what actually happened. Between January 5 and July 9, 2026, IRCC held 37 Express Entry draws and issued 98,641 invitations to apply across seven draw types:
| Draw type | Draws | Total ITAs | CRS range | Avg CRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Experience Class (CEC) | 11 | 45,250 | 507–518 | 512 |
| Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) | 13 | 5,979 | 708–805 | 759 |
| French language | 7 | 35,500 | 393–420 | 405 |
| Healthcare & social services | 2 | 8,000 | 467–475 | 471 |
| Trades | 1 | 3,000 | 477 | 477 |
| Senior managers | 1 | 250 | 429 | 429 |
| Physicians (Canadian work exp.) | 2 | 662 | 169–223 | 196 |
| Total (Jan 5 – Jul 9) | 37 | 98,641 | — | — |
The bigger story shows up when you split that in half. Draws slowed down noticeably from Q1 to Q2:
| Quarter | Draws | Total ITAs |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jan–Mar) | 19 | 57,830 |
| Q2 (Apr–Jun) | 15 | 33,277 |
| Change | –24% | ‒42% |
A 42% drop in total invitations on a similar number of draws isn’t a coincidence — it’s IRCC pulling back the volume dial and pausing draws in May. This is exactly why we see a swelling 500+ segment, which is the direct cause of the rising cutoff score for CEC.
The CEC cutoff isn’t dropping. If anything, it’s climbing.
Back in January and February, Canadian Experience Class draws were inviting candidates at CRS scores around 507 to 511. That felt achievable for a lot of people. But somewhere between April and June, the math shifted — cutoffs crept up to 514, then 516, then 518, even as the actual number of invitations per draw got smaller.
That combination matters. Smaller draws plus a rising cutoff usually means one thing: more people are competing for the same tier of scores. And that’s exactly what’s shown up in the pool data — the number of candidates sitting at 500+ CRS has grown noticeably since spring. So if your profile has been parked at, say, 495 for the last few months hoping the bar would come back down to meet you, the trend line says otherwise.
French draws are still the quiet workhorse
While CEC has gotten harder to predict, French-language category draws have kept chugging along all year at fairly steady volumes, pulling candidates from the high-300s to low-400s CRS range. If you have even conversational French — or you’re on the fence about whether it’s worth the study time — this is the year to stop sitting on the fence. A B1 across all four abilities can be the difference between watching draws from the sidelines and actually getting an ITA.
Category draws are clearing entire pools, not just skimming the top
Some of the smaller category draws this year — physicians and senior managers with Canadian experience — have gone out at astonishingly low cutoffs. We’re talking CRS scores in the 200s for physicians, which tells you the eligible pool for that category is small enough that IRCC can basically clear it out with each round. If your occupation lines up with any of the active 2026 categories, this is not the year to assume you don’t qualify without double-checking. It’s worth five minutes of your time to confirm.
So what should you actually be doing right now?
A few honest suggestions, in order of how often we see people skip them:
Review your language test results again. This is the one we see most. A lot of candidates take CELPIP or IELTS once, plug the score into the CRS calculator, and never revisit it. But CRS points from language ability scale fast — a jump from CLB 8 to CLB 9 in each ability can add meaningfully more points than people expect because it also unlocks additional points for skill transferability. If it’s been over a year since your last test, or if you’ve never really pushed your speaking and writing scores, this is genuinely the highest-leverage thing most candidates can do in the second half of 2026.
Have someone else check your profile for points you’re leaving on the table. We say this a lot because it’s true more often than people think: candidates routinely miss points they’re entitled to. A sibling in Canada, a spouse’s education credential that was never properly assessed, work experience that wasn’t correctly accounted for — these small gaps add up, and in a year where the CEC cutoff keeps nudging upward, five or ten missed points can be the whole ballgame.
Stop treating Express Entry as your only route. If you’re eligible for a Provincial Nominee stream which has an Express Entry stream — a nomination adds 600 CRS points outright and puts you at the very top of any draw regardless of where the general cutoff lands. Given how competitive the CEC and general pools have gotten, this is worth a serious look rather than a “maybe later.” A caveat is that the revamped Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program (OINP) doesn’t seem to offer an Express Entry eligible stream.
A quick word on where we’re based
We work with Express Entry candidates across the Greater Toronto Area — Express Entry Toronto and Express Entry Canada Toronto searches bring a lot of people to us, but we get just as many enquiries from Richmond Hill, Vaughan, and folks searching Express Entry Markham looking for someone local who actually understands both the federal program and how it interacts with Ontario’s PNP streams. Wherever you’re calling from in the GTA, the fundamentals above apply the same way.
The bottom line for H2 2026
The Express Entry draws in 2026 have made one thing clear: this isn’t a year to leave your profile untouched and hope the cutoff drifts back down. Between rising CEC scores, a growing pool of higher-CRS candidates, and category draws that reward the specific rather than the general, the advantage now goes to people who actively tune their profile — language scores especially — rather than those who submitted once and walked away.
Book a Consultation with Hopeway Immigration today to come up with the best strategy!
Hopeway Immigration is a 5-star rated Canadian immigration consultancy based in North York, Toronto, led by a licensed Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC-IRB). The team has a strong track record in handling economic immigration matters, including Express Entry, the Ontario PNP, and other Provincial Nominee Programs. The founder, Anne Lui, is a first-generation immigrant known for her unique approach that combines solid legal knowledge with genuine empathy, helping clients navigate the challenges of their immigration journey with confidence and clarity.
Our company is based in North York, Toronto, serving the neighborhoods of Richmond Hill, Markham, and Vaughan.
Book a meeting today or call 437-430-1230 to learn more.
